Category: Rivian-Tesla-production

It’s been about a year since my last post comparing Rivian and Tesla’s production ramp, and I wanted to share an update.

Specifically, this chart compares growth of deliveries quarter-by-quarter for each company based on when each started production (Tesla = 2012 Q3, Rivian = 2021 Q3).

Rivian continues to deliver more vehicles per quarter than Tesla at the equivalent point in development. Additionally, Rivian is producing three vehicles: the R1S (SUV), the R1T (pickup truck), and two sizes of delivery vans. Based on Rivian’s guidance for 2024 (purple dashed line on the chart), this will continue for probably at least another 6-12 months.

To be fair to Tesla, Rivian has taken advantage of Tesla proving that there’s a market for electric vehicles. Rivian was likely taken more seriously by suppliers because at least there was a new all-EV car manufacturer that had been founded in recent history.

Rivian, however, started production at possibly the worst time: just as the economy saw rocketing inflation and supply chain problems throughout the automotive sector. The effects of this certainly hit their early financial results, but they’ve been making great strides in efficiency and cost-cutting, particularly with the Generation 2 updated vehicles.

Looking forward to 2025-2026

Rivian is aiming to start production of R2 vehicles in the first half of 2026. This would mean that their lower-cost / mid-range vehicle would start deliveries approximately 3-6 months ahead of Tesla at the equivalent point in development.

Tesla started Model 3 deliveries in Q3 of 2017, which aligns to Year 6 – Quarter 1 in the timeline above. If Rivian starts deliveries in Q2 of 2026, that aligns to Year 5 – Quarter 4 on the same timeline.

With Rivian saying that they’re going to start R2 vehicle manufacturing at their existing Normal, IL plant, it certainly removes a lot of risk in achieving their goal of launching in the first half of 2026. There’s no risk of construction delays, no risk of poor knowledge transfer from experienced Rivian line workers, no risk of splitting effort across two very geographically-separated plants at a key milestone, etc.

That said, at some point Rivian will need to expand manufacturing space beyond the existing Normal, IL plant if they want to scale. (The existing plant can manufacture approximately 200k -ish vehicles per year; Tesla is currently manufacturing over 400k vehicles per quarter, over multiple plants.)

I believe the interesting test for Rivian will be their ability to ramp manufacturing in 2025. Will they be able to use the newly updated Generation 2 R1 platform to drive more throughput in manufacturing? How will preparations for manufacturing the R2 platform affect throughput?

Tesla was able to continue increasing production of the Model S and Model X in the four quarters before launching the Model 3. Will Rivian be able to do the same, or will they be limited by factory space in Normal?

As a Rivian fan, I’m looking forward to seeing how the company will execute. (And really hoping they’re able to pull forward product development on the R3X – that’s a really exciting car!)

It’s been about four months since my last post comparing the data on the production ramp comparing the early history of Tesla and Rivian. Crucially:

• two more quarters of data have been released
• I’ve updated the charts so they’re more clear on the timeline
• I’ve added Lucid Motors as an additional comparison

Production Ramp Data

Rivian continues to outpace Tesla’s production at the equivalent point in their histories, delivering >12.5k vehicles in Y2Q4, compared to Tesla’s production of >7.5k vehicles. Rivian also continues to state they’re on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which is modeled with the “Rivian – projected” line in the chart below. (In a very naive sense of “modeled”.) Rivian should continue to outpace Tesla’s manufacturing benchmark for many quarters to come.

Lucid Motors unfortunately continues to lag behind both Tesla and Rivian at the equivalent point, only delivering 1404 vehicles in the last quarter. At the same point in their history, Rivian delivered >7900 vehicles and Tesla delivered >6400 vehicles. Lucid’s vehicles seem to be pretty fantastic and I’ve definitely seen some on the roads in the SF/Bay Area. I sincerely hope they’re able to grow.

The thing I’m perhaps most excited about for the future of Rivian is that they’re producing at least 4 different vehicles across 2 different platforms. Consumers can purchase the R1T (pickup) or R1S (SUV), and Amazon is purchasing thousands of delivery vans across two different models. At the same point in their history, Tesla was only producing the Model S.

That Rivian has managed to continue a production ramp despite the complexity of multiple vehicles and platforms speaks well to their future ability to manage a growing family of vehicles and options.

Not a neutral observer

I need to admit I’m not a neutral observer. A long-time good friend of mine was an early hire at Rivian so I’ve had positive feelings for the company for years. Also, I’m one of those 12.5k deliveries for Rivian in Q2 2023! My wife and I took delivery of our R1S (Forest Green, Forest Edge interior, 21″ wheels) in May, and we absolutely love it.

Tesla and Rivian are the two biggest new car companies producing electric vehicles in the United States, and I recently thought it’d be interesting to compare their production ramps over time. As a massive proponent of electric vehicles and electrification generally, I think comparing Rivian to the benchmark growth rates Tesla has set can help shape an understanding of what’s possible for new car companies. (Obviously it’s different compared to existing car manufacturers, for a variety of reasons!) I also have a reservation for a Rivian R1S, but am generally interested in the success of any new EV manufacturer.

I’ll outline the relevant early history of both companies below, and then get into the charts. While Rivian took much longer from its founding to unveiling its prototype vehicles, it’s now on a much faster production ramp than Tesla was at the same point in its history.

Tesla

Tesla was founded in 2003, and the Tesla Roadster started production in 2008. But the Roadster was a vehicle that was produced in partnership with Lotus cars; the Roadster was a (highly) modified Lotus Elise chassis. When compared to scalable vehicle production lines, it’s just not the same.

The true car company history of Tesla arguably starts in 2010, when Tesla bought their Fremont factory from Toyota. This was needed for the Tesla Model S, which had already been unveiled in 2009, and which started production in 2012. The Tesla Model S was the only vehicle Tesla manufactured from mid-2012 to mid-2015.

Rivian

Rivian was founded in 2009. It purchased its factory in Normal, Illinois from Mitsubushi in 2017, and unveiled the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV in November 2018 at the LA Auto Show. Amazon invested in Rivian in 2019 and announced a deal to purchase 100k electric delivery vans (EDVs).

Rivian started production in mid-2021. This production was across two platforms and multiple individual vehicles: the consumer platform (R1T and R1S vehicles) as well as the EDV platform.

Tesla vs Rivian – indexing production ramps

I went back to press releases from both companies to get data on vehicle production. Tesla started manufacturing and delivering Tesla Model S’s in Q2 2012, but only started reporting production numbers starting in Q3 2012. Rivian started manufacturing and delivering R1Ts in Q3 2021, but only announced 2021 full-year production numbers, so I’ve assumed ~5% of the full-year production happened in Q3, with the balance in Q4.

Sync’ing this up, Tesla started mass production/delivery in Q3 2012, and Rivian started mass production/delivery in Q3 2021, nine years later. (x-axis for the chart below is indexed to Rivian’s timeline)

Tesla vs Rivian – comparison

Tesla was able to very quickly ramp to deliverying 5,000 vehicles (specifically just the Tesla Model S) per quarter. But from then, growth was slower, taking eight quarters (two years) to cross the 10,000 vehicles/quarter threshold.

Rivian’s ramp in year one has been slower, taking five quarters (versus two) to cross the 5,000 vehicles/quarter threshold. But again, Rivian has been producing five different vehicles across two different vehicle platforms. This accelerated in 2022, and Rivian is also now on a much faster production ramp than Tesla was at the equivalent point in its history.

This is also on track to continue throughout 2023 and 2024. The red line above is my projections for Rivian growth, based on its expected 50,000 vehicle production in 2023 and extending that rate a bit further. (There are rumors that Rivian could potentially exceed this by 20% in 2023, too.)

Extending further into the future

Rivian’s factory in Normal, IL reportedly has a maximum production capacity of 200k vehicles/year, or 50k/quarter. If we take the (very bad, possibly low-balled) assumption of the expected production ramp from 2023 into the future and compare it to Tesla, you get this:

Tesla started scaling massively with the launch of the Model 3, which began deliveries in 2017 Q3. Just one year later (2018 Q3) Tesla was manufacturing more Model 3’s per quarter than Model S’s and Model X’s combined. Indexed to Rivian’s timeline, this is equivalent to launching a new vehicle platform in 2026 Q3 and scaling it by 2027 Q3.

Interestingly, Rivian has already started construction on a new production plant in Georgia that (with the existing plant in Normal, IL) should allow the company to grow to 600k vehicles/year, or 150k vehicles/quarter. It has also stated that they expect to launch the R2 platform (lower-priced vehicles, similar to Tesla Model 3/Y) in 2026 and specifically manufacture it at this Georgia plant.

The next 12-24 months at Rivian will be interesting – will they be able to keep growing the production rate? How long will it take to get the maximum possible production from the Normal, IL plant? Right now Rivian is producing more vehicles per quarter than Tesla at the equivalent point. If the company is able to launch the Georgia plant and start manufacturing the R2 platform there in 2026 as expected, they may be able to continue to beat the production benchmarks that Tesla has set over the last decade.