Category: Data geekery

It’s been about a year since my last post comparing Rivian and Tesla’s production ramp, and I wanted to share an update.

Specifically, this chart compares growth of deliveries quarter-by-quarter for each company based on when each started production (Tesla = 2012 Q3, Rivian = 2021 Q3).

Rivian continues to deliver more vehicles per quarter than Tesla at the equivalent point in development. Additionally, Rivian is producing three vehicles: the R1S (SUV), the R1T (pickup truck), and two sizes of delivery vans. Based on Rivian’s guidance for 2024 (purple dashed line on the chart), this will continue for probably at least another 6-12 months.

To be fair to Tesla, Rivian has taken advantage of Tesla proving that there’s a market for electric vehicles. Rivian was likely taken more seriously by suppliers because at least there was a new all-EV car manufacturer that had been founded in recent history.

Rivian, however, started production at possibly the worst time: just as the economy saw rocketing inflation and supply chain problems throughout the automotive sector. The effects of this certainly hit their early financial results, but they’ve been making great strides in efficiency and cost-cutting, particularly with the Generation 2 updated vehicles.

Looking forward to 2025-2026

Rivian is aiming to start production of R2 vehicles in the first half of 2026. This would mean that their lower-cost / mid-range vehicle would start deliveries approximately 3-6 months ahead of Tesla at the equivalent point in development.

Tesla started Model 3 deliveries in Q3 of 2017, which aligns to Year 6 – Quarter 1 in the timeline above. If Rivian starts deliveries in Q2 of 2026, that aligns to Year 5 – Quarter 4 on the same timeline.

With Rivian saying that they’re going to start R2 vehicle manufacturing at their existing Normal, IL plant, it certainly removes a lot of risk in achieving their goal of launching in the first half of 2026. There’s no risk of construction delays, no risk of poor knowledge transfer from experienced Rivian line workers, no risk of splitting effort across two very geographically-separated plants at a key milestone, etc.

That said, at some point Rivian will need to expand manufacturing space beyond the existing Normal, IL plant if they want to scale. (The existing plant can manufacture approximately 200k -ish vehicles per year; Tesla is currently manufacturing over 400k vehicles per quarter, over multiple plants.)

I believe the interesting test for Rivian will be their ability to ramp manufacturing in 2025. Will they be able to use the newly updated Generation 2 R1 platform to drive more throughput in manufacturing? How will preparations for manufacturing the R2 platform affect throughput?

Tesla was able to continue increasing production of the Model S and Model X in the four quarters before launching the Model 3. Will Rivian be able to do the same, or will they be limited by factory space in Normal?

As a Rivian fan, I’m looking forward to seeing how the company will execute. (And really hoping they’re able to pull forward product development on the R3X – that’s a really exciting car!)

It’s been about four months since my last post comparing the data on the production ramp comparing the early history of Tesla and Rivian. Crucially:

• two more quarters of data have been released
• I’ve updated the charts so they’re more clear on the timeline
• I’ve added Lucid Motors as an additional comparison

Production Ramp Data

Rivian continues to outpace Tesla’s production at the equivalent point in their histories, delivering >12.5k vehicles in Y2Q4, compared to Tesla’s production of >7.5k vehicles. Rivian also continues to state they’re on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which is modeled with the “Rivian – projected” line in the chart below. (In a very naive sense of “modeled”.) Rivian should continue to outpace Tesla’s manufacturing benchmark for many quarters to come.

Lucid Motors unfortunately continues to lag behind both Tesla and Rivian at the equivalent point, only delivering 1404 vehicles in the last quarter. At the same point in their history, Rivian delivered >7900 vehicles and Tesla delivered >6400 vehicles. Lucid’s vehicles seem to be pretty fantastic and I’ve definitely seen some on the roads in the SF/Bay Area. I sincerely hope they’re able to grow.

The thing I’m perhaps most excited about for the future of Rivian is that they’re producing at least 4 different vehicles across 2 different platforms. Consumers can purchase the R1T (pickup) or R1S (SUV), and Amazon is purchasing thousands of delivery vans across two different models. At the same point in their history, Tesla was only producing the Model S.

That Rivian has managed to continue a production ramp despite the complexity of multiple vehicles and platforms speaks well to their future ability to manage a growing family of vehicles and options.

Not a neutral observer

I need to admit I’m not a neutral observer. A long-time good friend of mine was an early hire at Rivian so I’ve had positive feelings for the company for years. Also, I’m one of those 12.5k deliveries for Rivian in Q2 2023! My wife and I took delivery of our R1S (Forest Green, Forest Edge interior, 21″ wheels) in May, and we absolutely love it.