Baseball in 2019 – if promotion and relegation existed

As an American living in London, it took me a while to understand British sports.  Partly because they played cricket instead of baseball, rugby instead of basketball, and football instead of… well… “American football”.  But the thing I learned in the UK that really made me think about how socialist most American sports are was promotion and relegation.

First off, you should know that there are many (many) tiers to English football, from the Premier League all the way down to local amateur clubs.  But at the end of every football season, the top teams from each league are promoted to the next tier above, and the bottom teams from each league are relegated to the next tier below.  Every year the bottom 3 teams from the Premier League are relegated to the EFL Championship League, and top 3 teams from the EFL Championship League are promoted to the Premier League.

In actuality, the top two teams from the EFL Championship League are automatically promoted to the Premier League, and there’s a mini-playoff to win the third spot.  That final playoff match – to win the third promotion – is the most lucrative single match in all of football globally.  Winning it, and the income that goes to teams that play in the Premier League, is worth >$200million to the winning club.  Promotion and relegation is really, really exciting (and heartbreaking).

What I love about this feature of English football is just how truly capitalist it is. Clubs can’t just give up part-way through a year, chalk it up as “a rebuilding year”, and know they can re-start the next season.  If they suck, they’re getting relegated and it’ll impact their top- and bottom-line financially, too.  For as much as Americans love capitalism, our sports leagues are socialist with an unbreakable social safety net.  No matter how bad a US team is they’re still guaranteed a share of TV ratings money, and that there’ll be no competition for their place in the league the next year.  (Can anyone say “Suck for Luck”?)

In the US, the only sport that could feasibly do anything like this is baseball.  There are tiers in the sport (major leagues, AAA, AA, etc), similar or the same number of teams at each tier, etc.  American football and basketball don’t have anywhere near the same depth of lower leagues, and while there are some minor league ice hockey teams they don’t have the same breadth or depth as baseball.

Thursday, March 28th is Opening Day across America for Major League Baseball. In honor of that, I wanted to publish something I’ve been meaning to do for years – a thought experiment around promotion and relegation in baseball.  If baseball teams were promoted and relegated based on their 2018 results, what would this upcoming season look like?

Let’s dig in!

MLB – 2018

Congratulations to the Red Sox, Astros, and Yankees! As the top three major league teams in 2018, they’d be eligible for any further competitions. In English football, this means they’d get to play in the Champions League the following year. In baseball, perhaps there could be some championship series involving teams from Japan, Cuba, etc? (Dare I say it: a truly World Series?)

Commiserations to fans of the Chicago White Sox, the Kansas City Royals, and the Baltimore Orioles. By finishing at the bottom in 2018, these three teams would be playing AAA baseball in 2019. In the Orioles’ defense, they play in the same AL East division as the Red Sox and the Yankees, so it’s tough to compete. At the same time… they only won 47 games in 2018 – oof. (Even bad teams should win 54 games according to Tommy Lasorda.)

Side note – both the best and the worst baseball teams in the major league in 2018 were all American League teams. That seems… weird, right?

The White Sox, Royals, and Orioles would be replaced by the top AAA teams: the LeHigh Valley IronPigs, the Memphis Redbirds, and the winner of a playoff between the Fresno Grizzlies and the El Paso Chihuahuas. It’s safe to say that promotion and relegation would mean there would be WAY more interesting team names in major league baseball!

Imagine how awesome it would be to live in/around Allentown, Pennsylvania — home to the LeHigh Valley IronPigs — and have the Yankees or Red Sox come to town to play in the 8300-seat Coca-Cola Park stadium?

AL/NL	Div	Team	W	L
AL	East	Red Sox	108	54
AL	West	Astros	103	59
AL	East	Yankees	100	62
AL	West	Athletics	97	65
NL	Central	Brewers	96	67
NL	Central	Cubs	95	68
NL	West	Dodgers	92	71
AL	Central	Indians	91	72
NL	West	Rockies	91	72
AL	East	Rays	90	72
NL	East	Braves	90	72
AL	West	Mariners	89	73
NL	Central	Cardinals	88	74
NL	Central	Pirates	82	79
NL	East	Nationals	82	80
NL	West	D’backs	82	80
AL	West	Angels	80	82
NL	East	Phillies	80	82
AL	Central	Twins	78	84
NL	East	Mets	77	85
AL	East	Blue Jays	73	89
NL	West	Giants	73	89
AL	West	Rangers	67	95
NL	Central	Reds	67	95
NL	West	Padres	66	96
AL	Central	Tigers	64	98
NL	East	Marlins	63	98
AL	Central	White Sox	62	100
AL	Central	Royals	58	104
AL	East	Orioles	47	115

AAA – 2018

Triple-A teams in 2019 would be visiting 40k-seat stadiums when they play the White Sox, Royals, and Orioles in 2019. While that could mean a massive impact for those teams, it would also mean that ticket prices could get a lot more affordable in those cities!

The Buffalo Bisons, the Sacramento River Cats, and the Iowa Cubs would all get relegated from AAA to AA for the 2019 season. They’d be replaced by three teams getting promoted from AA: the Corpus Christi Hooks, the Biloxi Shuckers, and the Altoona Curve.

The end of the 2018 AAA season would have included the most lucrative baseball game – a tiebreak playoff to determine whether the Fresno Grizzlies or El Paso Chihuahuas would be the final team promoted to the major leagues in 2019. What a game that could be, with tens of millions of dollars (or more) on the line for the winner!

Team	W	L	Pct	Affiliate
Lehigh Valley IronPigs	84	56	0.600	Phillies
Memphis Redbirds	83	57	0.593	Cardinals
Fresno Grizzlies *tiebreak	82	57	0.590	Astros
El Paso Chihuahuas *tiebreak	82	57	0.590	Padres
Durham Bulls	79	60	0.568	Rays
Oklahoma City Dodgers	75	65	0.536	Dodgers
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	73	65	0.529	Yankees
Toledo Mud Hens	73	66	0.525	Tigers
Colorado Springs Sky Sox	73	66	0.525	Brewers
Columbus Clippers	73	67	0.521	Indians
Indianapolis Indians	73	67	0.521	Pirates
Nashville Sounds	72	68	0.514	Athletics
Reno Aces	72	68	0.514	D’backs
Salt Lake Bees	71	68	0.511	Angels
Las Vegas 51s	71	69	0.507	Mets
Gwinnett Stripers	70	69	0.504	Braves
New Orleans Baby Cakes	69	70	0.496	Marlins
Norfolk Tides	69	71	0.493	Orioles
Pawtucket Red Sox	66	73	0.475	Red Sox
Tacoma Rainiers	66	73	0.475	Mariners
Omaha Storm Chasers	66	74	0.471	Royals
Round Rock Express	65	73	0.471	Rangers
Charlotte Knights	64	75	0.460	White Sox
Rochester Red Wings	64	76	0.457	Twins
Syracuse Chiefs	64	76	0.457	Nationals
Albuquerque Isotopes	63	77	0.450	Rockies
Louisville Bats	61	76	0.445	Reds
Buffalo Bisons	61	77	0.442	Blue Jays
Sacramento River Cats	55	85	0.393	Giants
Iowa Cubs	50	88	0.362	Cubs

AA – 2018

The Buffalo Bisons, Sacramento River Cats, and Iowa Cubs would be relegated to AA baseball in 2019, as the Corpus Christi Hooks, Biloxi Shuckers, and Altoona Curve get promoted to AAA.

On the bottom end of the table, the three teams getting relegated from AA to A (Advanced) baseball for 2019 would be the Springfield Cardinals, the Frisco RoughRiders, and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. These teams would be replaced by the top 2018 A (Advanced) teams: the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, the Winston-Salem Dash, and the Buies Creek Astros.

Team	W	L	Pct	Affiliate
Corpus Christi Hooks	82	56	0.594	Astros
Biloxi Shuckers	81	59	0.579	Brewers
Altoona Curve	78	60	0.565	Pirates
Trenton Thunder	79	61	0.564	Yankees
Montgomery Biscuits	79	61	0.564	Rays
Akron RubberDucks	78	62	0.557	Indians
New Hampshire Fisher Cats	76	62	0.551	Blue Jays
Jackson Generals	75	64	0.540	D’backs
Tulsa Drillers	74	65	0.532	Dodgers
Harrisburg Senators	72	65	0.526	Nationals
San Antonio Missions	71	67	0.514	Padres
Arkansas Travelers	71	68	0.511	Mariners
Pensacola Blue Wahoos	69	68	0.504	Reds
Northwest Arkansas Naturals	70	70	0.500	Royals
Midland RockHounds	68	71	0.489	Athletics
Bowie Baysox	67	71	0.486	Orioles
Tennessee Smokies	67	71	0.486	Cubs
Mississippi Braves	67	71	0.486	Braves
Mobile BayBears	66	70	0.485	Angels
Birmingham Barons	66	72	0.478	White Sox
Hartford Yard Goats	65	72	0.474	Rockies
Chattanooga Lookouts	65	72	0.474	Twins
Reading Fightin Phils	64	73	0.467	Phillies
Binghampton Rumble Ponies	64	76	0.457	Mets
Portland Sea Dogs	63	76	0.453	Red Sox
Erie SeaWolves	63	77	0.450	Tigers
Richmond Flying Squirrels	62	76	0.449	Giants
Springfield Cardinals	60	79	0.432	Cardinals
Frisco RoughRiders	60	80	0.429	Rangers
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	55	82	0.401	Marlins

A (Advanced) – 2018

In 2019 the Springfield Cardinals, the Frisco RoughRiders, and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp would all play in A (Advanced) baseball, replacing the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, the Winston-Salem Dash, and the Buies Creek Astros.

Three A (Advanced) teams would get relegated to A baseball in 2019: the Florida Fire Frogs, the St. Lucie Mets, and either the San Jose Giants or the Down East Wood Ducks. Again, since the San Jose Giants and the Down East Wood Ducks finished the season with the same record, they’d need to play a tiebreak game to determine which team stayed in the A (Advanced) league for the 2019 season.

Getting promoted to A (Advanced) baseball in 2019 would be the Bowling Green Hot Rods, the Lakewood BlueClaws, and the Quad City River Bandits.

Team	W	L	Pct	Affiliate
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	87	53	0.621	Dodgers
Winston- Salem Dash	84	54	0.609	White Sox
Buies Creek Astros	80	57	0.584	Astros
Palm Beach Cardinals	75	58	0.564	Cardinals
Clearwater Threshers	77	60	0.562	Phillies
Stockton Ports	77	63	0.550	Athletics
Potomac Nationals	74	62	0.544	Nationals
Charlotte Stone Crabs	74	62	0.544	Rays
Lakeland Flying Tigers	72	61	0.541	Tigers
Jupiter Hammerheads	70	64	0.522	Marlins
Lynchburg Hillcats	71	66	0.518	Indians
Daytona Tortugas	69	66	0.511	Reds
Tampa Tarpons	70	67	0.511	Yankees
Dunedin Blue Jays	69	68	0.504	Blue Jays
Visalia Rawhide	70	70	0.500	D’backs
Lancaster JetHawks	70	70	0.500	Rockies
Fort Myers Miracle	68	69	0.496	Twins
Lake Elsinore Storm	68	72	0.486	Padres
Wilmington Blue Rocks	68	72	0.486	Royals
Inland Empire 66ers	67	73	0.479	Angels
Frederick Keys	65	72	0.474	Orioles
Carolina Mudcats	65	73	0.471	Brewers
Salem Red Sox	63	75	0.457	Red Sox
Modesto Nuts	62	78	0.443	Mariners
Myrtle Beach Pelicans	61	78	0.439	Cubs
Bradenton Marauders	56	74	0.431	Pirates
San Jose Giants *tiebreak	59	81	0.421	Giants
Down East Wood Ducks *tiebreak	59	81	0.421	Rangers
St. Lucie Mets	54	76	0.415	Mets
Florida Fire Frogs	51	80	0.389	Braves

A – 2018

Finally, in A baseball in 2019 the Florida Fire Frogs, the St. Lucie Mets, and either the San Jose Giants or Down East Wood Ducks would be replacing the Bowling Green Hot Rods, the Lakewood BlueClaws, and the Quad City River Bandits.

The bottom three A baseball teams in 2018 would get relegated to the next tier down: the Dayton Dragons, the Hagerstown Suns, and the Burlington Bees. They would be replaced by the top three teams from the next tier down.

Frankly, below A baseball gets to be… less neatly structured than A baseball and above. So I’m going to stop this thought experiment here. But it could easily be continued further down to lower tiers of baseball.

Team	W	L	Pct	Affiliate
Bowling Green Hot Rods	90	49	0.647	Rays
Lakewood BlueClaws	87	51	0.630	Phillies
Quad City River Bandits	81	59	0.579	Astros
Lansing Lugnuts	80	60	0.571	Blue Jays
Lexington Legends	76	60	0.559	Royals
Cedar Rapids Kernels	77	62	0.554	Twins
Peoria Chiefs	76	63	0.547	Cardinals
Kannapolis Intimidators	74	63	0.540	White Six
West Virginia Power	71	62	0.534	Pirates
Kane County Cougars	72	66	0.522	D’backs
Rome Braves	71	65	0.522	Braves
Delmarva Shorebirds	68	66	0.507	Orioles
Hickory Crawdads	70	68	0.507	Rangers
Beloit Snappers	69	69	0.500	Athletics
West Michigan Whitecaps	69	70	0.496	Tigers
Clinton LumberKings	69	70	0.496	Mariners
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	68	71	0.489	Brewers
Augusta GreenJackets	67	70	0.489	Giants
Columbia Fireflies	64	70	0.478	Mets
Charleston RiverDogs	64	72	0.471	Yankees
Asheville Tourists	64	73	0.467	Rockies
Fort Wayne TinCaps	64	74	0.464	Padres
South Bend Cubs	64	74	0.464	Cubs
Greenville Drive	64	75	0.460	Red Sox
Greensboro Grasshoppers	60	76	0.441	Marlins
Great Lakes Loons	60	77	0.438	Dodgers
Lake County Captains	60	79	0.432	Indians
Dayton Dragons	58	80	0.420	Reds
Hagerstown Suns	52	81	0.391	Nationals
Burlington Bees	50	84	0.373	Angels

MLB teams & affiliate performance

Since every major league baseball team is affiliated to one team in every tier of minor league baseball, I thought it would be interesting to analyze both that team’s performance and the performance of its’ affiliates. Check out the table below – the numbers are the placing (1 out of 30) for that major league teams’ affiliate in that league.

The first stand-out team is the Houston Astros. Not only were the Astros themselves in the top 3 of major league baseball, but three out of four of their affiliates would have been promoted to the next league up. The final team would have made it to the AAA playoff and potentially made it to the major leagues, too. I don’t know enough about baseball to understand the full relationships between a team, its affiliates, and affiliate performance, but what the Astros did in 2018 is remarkable.

The Astros could be compared to the Red Sox — while the Red Sox had the #1 record and won the World Series in 2018, all of their affiliates were in the bottom half of their leagues. This could potentially be a concern for the Red Sox. (I’m honestly not sure!)

However, the San Francisco Giants are tied for perhaps the worst record across all major league teams. The Giants themselves were in the bottom third of the major league, and their top-ranked affiliate finished #18 out of 30. One of the Giants’ affiliates would have been relegated, a second would be in a playoff to avoid relegation, and a third would have just missed the cutoff for relegation. Ouch!

The Texas Rangers is about even with the Giants for the worst record, though. Like the Giants, one of their affiliates would have been relegated, and another affiliate would be in a playoff (with the Giants) to avoid relegation. Not only that but their major league team finished one place behind the Giants, and their top-ranked affiliate finished #13 out of 30. Again… ouch!

League	Division	Team	MLB	AAA	AA	A(Adv)	A
AL	East	Red Sox	1	19	25	23	24
AL	East	Yankees	3	7	4	13	20
AL	East	Rays	10	5	5	8	1
AL	East	Blue Jays	21	28	7	14	4
AL	East	Orioles	30	18	16	21	12
AL	Central	Indians	8	10	6	11	27
AL	Central	Twins	19	24	22	17	6
AL	Central	Tigers	26	8	26	9	15
AL	Central	White Sox	28	23	20	2	8
AL	Central	Royals	29	21	14	19	5
AL	West	Astros	2	3*	1	3	3
AL	West	Athletics	4	12	15	6	14
AL	West	Mariners	12	20	12	24	16
AL	West	Angels	17	14	19	20	30
AL	West	Rangers	23	22	29	28*	13
NL	East	Braves	11	16	18	30	11
NL	East	Nationals	15	25	10	7	29
NL	East	Phillies	18	1	23	5	2
NL	East	Mets	20	15	24	29	19
NL	East	Marlins	27	17	30	10	25
NL	Central	Brewers	5	9	2	22	17
NL	Central	Cubs	6	30	17	25	23
NL	Central	Cardinals	13	2	28	4	7
NL	Central	Pirates	14	11	3	26	9
NL	Central	Reds	24	27	13	12	28
NL	West	Dodgers	7	6	9	1	26
NL	West	Rockies	9	26	21	16	21
NL	West	D’backs	16	13	8	15	10
NL	West	Giants	22	29	27	28*	18
NL	West	Padres	25	3*	11	18	22

Summary

Yes, this whole post is a thought experiment. It’s not something that could be implemented easily (the owners would just block it), or efficiently. Rebalancing geographically, the idea that a major league team could be competing with an affiliate team that it runs/controls, the vast economic differences between the major leagues and minor leagues and what that means for revenue sharing are all reason why this isn’t feasible. (Not to mention that there are more minor league teams than just those affiliated with major league baseball — I only focused on MLB affiliate minor league teams because it was the easiest data set to analyze.)

But damn, wouldn’t it just be a lot more fun to have promotion and relegation in baseball? I’d love to see the Red Sox play in a 8300-seat stadium. I’d love the idea that if a team kicks ass they get to play better teams the next year. I’d love, love, love the idea that if a team is too bad they get kicked down into a lower division. Like in English football, the best end of season games wouldn’t just come from the top teams fighting for a championship, but also the bottom teams trying to stay in their league.

Who’s with me?